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Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands

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Post  LTRT Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:58 am

Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20091029/D9BKMVMG0.html

WASHINGTON (AP) - An early progress report on President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan overstates by thousands the number of jobs created or saved through the stimulus program, a mistake that White House officials promise will be corrected in future reports.

The government's first accounting of jobs tied to the $787 billion stimulus program claimed more than 30,000 positions paid for with recovery money. But that figure is overstated by least 5,000 jobs, according to an Associated Press review of a sample of stimulus contracts.

'it's working, it's working', the fuzzy math that is Rolling Eyes

This is becoming more and more of a sham each and every day, but then again what does the public know. For the WH to continue to put their best spin on this makes them look even more like the buffoons they are. But wait everyone says...the bulk of the money hasn't yet been distributed. Why just last week the prez's own economic adviser went on record by stating it's already had it's biggest impact. But I'm sure we'll be inundated soon about how jobless claims have dropped, simply neglecting the fact the people have exhausted all benefits and took jobs as mall Santa's.
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Post  Pez Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:43 am

LTRT wrote:Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20091029/D9BKMVMG0.html

WASHINGTON (AP) - An early progress report on President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan overstates by thousands the number of jobs created or saved through the stimulus program, a mistake that White House officials promise will be corrected in future reports.

The government's first accounting of jobs tied to the $787 billion stimulus program claimed more than 30,000 positions paid for with recovery money. But that figure is overstated by least 5,000 jobs, according to an Associated Press review of a sample of stimulus contracts.

'it's working, it's working', the fuzzy math that is Rolling Eyes

This is becoming more and more of a sham each and every day, but then again what does the public know. For the WH to continue to put their best spin on this makes them look even more like the buffoons they are. But wait everyone says...the bulk of the money hasn't yet been distributed. Why just last week the prez's own economic adviser went on record by stating it's already had it's biggest impact. But I'm sure we'll be inundated soon about how jobless claims have dropped, simply neglecting the fact the people have exhausted all benefits and took jobs as mall Santa's.

I cant understand what it is these days that make people think everything is a conspiracy... Do you think the WH is stupid enough to overstate jobs as part of a conspiracy, knowing that those numbers will be scrutinized and rescrutinized by every media outlet and political watchdog... If you would prefer to think that this is a conspiracy and the WH is a bunch of buffoons, that's an opinion you are certainly entitled to.

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Post  Cincy Fan 44 Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:44 am

I'm not sure LTRT...but I 'think' that in 2012 you won't be voting for Barack as president... tongue
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Post  Guest Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:02 pm

Yes, Thank you LTRT for once again sharing a portion of your daily bitching *ahem* news commentary.

Have you picked up a mop yet?

Your commentary, and subjective analysis of the article, (written in plain English) seems (to me) of greater concern than the actual content of the article. Dunno, maybe it's just the way this cool-aid tastes...


The AP review found some counts were more than 10 times as high as the actual number of jobs; some jobs credited to the stimulus program were counted two and sometimes more than four times; and other jobs were credited to stimulus spending when none was produced.

For example:

- A company working with the Federal Communications Commission reported that stimulus money paid for 4,231 jobs, when about 1,000 were produced.

- A Georgia community college reported creating 280 jobs with recovery money, but none was created from stimulus spending.

- A Florida child care center said its stimulus money saved 129 jobs but used the money on raises for existing employees.

There's no evidence the White House sought to inflate job numbers in the report. But administration officials seized on the 30,000 figure as evidence that the stimulus program was on its way toward fulfilling the president's promise of creating or saving 3.5 million jobs by the end of next year.

The reporting problem could be magnified Friday when a much larger round of reports is expected to show hundreds of thousands of jobs repairing public housing, building schools, repaving highways and keeping teachers on local payrolls.

The White House says it is aware there are problems. In an interview, Ed DeSeve, an Obama adviser helping to oversee the stimulus program, said agencies have been working with businesses that received the money to correct mistakes. Other errors discovered by the public also will be corrected, he said.

"If there's an error that was made, let's get it fixed," DeSeve said.

It appears by your comments you have misunderstood how the job numbers were reporting, attributing the errors to intentional "fluffing" by the administration. The article clearly details this is not the case.

Why don't you give that Florida Child Care center a call and tell them how you feel disappointed with their reporting.
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Post  Scooby01_98 Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:59 pm

Pez wrote:
LTRT wrote:Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20091029/D9BKMVMG0.html

WASHINGTON (AP) - An early progress report on President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan overstates by thousands the number of jobs created or saved through the stimulus program, a mistake that White House officials promise will be corrected in future reports.

The government's first accounting of jobs tied to the $787 billion stimulus program claimed more than 30,000 positions paid for with recovery money. But that figure is overstated by least 5,000 jobs, according to an Associated Press review of a sample of stimulus contracts.

'it's working, it's working', the fuzzy math that is Rolling Eyes

This is becoming more and more of a sham each and every day, but then again what does the public know. For the WH to continue to put their best spin on this makes them look even more like the buffoons they are. But wait everyone says...the bulk of the money hasn't yet been distributed. Why just last week the prez's own economic adviser went on record by stating it's already had it's biggest impact. But I'm sure we'll be inundated soon about how jobless claims have dropped, simply neglecting the fact the people have exhausted all benefits and took jobs as mall Santa's.

I cant understand what it is these days that make people think everything is a conspiracy... Do you think the WH is stupid enough to overstate jobs as part of a conspiracy, knowing that those numbers will be scrutinized and rescrutinized by every media outlet and political watchdog... If you would prefer to think that this is a conspiracy and the WH is a bunch of buffoons, that's an opinion you are certainly entitled to.

I don't think it is a conspiracy. I think it is the administration trying to look like it did something that they really didn't do anything. There really is no way to verify the stimulus money add or deleted any one job. Although I am quite sure several have been hired due to government funding of projects. The main point of the stimulus was to create jobs, yet every month we continue to shed more jobs than created. So you have to decide if the stimulus project did what it said it did. I personally don't think it helped as much as the administration says it did, it was spent on the wrong things.

Of course Biden is in charge of this, so just from his past experience you knew the numbers were going to get inflated.
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Post  Markwes Thu Oct 29, 2009 2:26 pm

meta4 wrote:It appears by your comments you have misunderstood how the job numbers were reporting, attributing the errors to intentional "fluffing" by the administration. The article clearly details this is not the case.

Why don't you give that Florida Child Care center a call and tell them how you feel disappointed with their reporting.
Then my answer would be they screwed up by using untrustworthy numbers. Seriously, why report any number? Well, the obvious answer is to look good. But how can anyone possibly quantify how many jobs were saved/created by any one factor? There are so many components that go into hiring decisions.
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Post  LTRT Thu Oct 29, 2009 2:47 pm

Pez wrote:I cant understand what it is these days that make people think everything is a conspiracy... Do you think the WH is stupid enough to overstate jobs as part of a conspiracy, knowing that those numbers will be scrutinized and rescrutinized by every media outlet and political watchdog... If you would prefer to think that this is a conspiracy and the WH is a bunch of buffoons, that's an opinion you are certainly entitled to.

Maybe the question is not whether I think the inflated numbers are a conspiracy (which I don't), it's whether I believe the stimulus is going to produce the jobs that were claimed by 'that one' (which I don't).

Stimulus Job Growth chart
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Post  LTRT Thu Oct 29, 2009 2:54 pm

meta4 wrote:It appears by your comments you have misunderstood how the job numbers were reporting, attributing the errors to intentional "fluffing" by the administration. The article clearly details this is not the case.

Why don't you give that Florida Child Care center a call and tell them how you feel disappointed with their reporting.

Who cares where the numbers originated from, the WH ran with them didn't they? Once again taking credit for something they did NOT do.

meta4 wrote:Have you picked up a mop yet?

I keep checking my mail and my gov't coupon hasn't come yet.
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Post  Guest Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:04 pm

Markwes wrote:
meta4 wrote:It appears by your comments you have misunderstood how the job numbers were reporting, attributing the errors to intentional "fluffing" by the administration. The article clearly details this is not the case.

Why don't you give that Florida Child Care center a call and tell them how you feel disappointed with their reporting.
Then my answer would be they screwed up by using untrustworthy numbers. Seriously, why report any number? Well, the obvious answer is to look good. But how can anyone possibly quantify how many jobs were saved/created by any one factor? There are so many components that go into hiring decisions.

My response would be, "it is what it is". You think some of the new jobs created should have been people who call up these recipients of stimulus to interrogate them on how they report their job creation numbers?

Ok, I give you (pretend you're a state) $5M to do road improvements, you accept bids for the contract. One bid is selected, the project begins, and numbers of employees working on that contract are reported... say 310 jobs. They've got dirt movers and stone delivery, asphalt, rollers, and supervisor type guys. These aren't full time positions, but it's still a "job task" that must be performed by a single human.

Do they report only the number of personnel working on that contract? Or spend 3 weeks perhaps more time, getting into more granularity by reporting the "numbers" of jobs which only work more than 24 hours per work week for a minimum of 13 consecutive weeks? Why not a solid 40? What if the money only created part time opportunities, say 5am to 12 noon for the child care place?

Broad strokes my friends... I take them for what they are.
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Post  LTRT Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:11 pm

meta4 wrote:...but it's still a "job task" that must be performed by a single human.

Broad strokes my friends... I take them for what they are.

Don't forget someone had to put up the new sign. geek
Now there's money well spent. Rolling Eyes

Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands RoadSign
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Post  Scooby01_98 Thu Oct 29, 2009 6:34 pm

meta4 wrote:
Markwes wrote:
meta4 wrote:It appears by your comments you have misunderstood how the job numbers were reporting, attributing the errors to intentional "fluffing" by the administration. The article clearly details this is not the case.

Why don't you give that Florida Child Care center a call and tell them how you feel disappointed with their reporting.
Then my answer would be they screwed up by using untrustworthy numbers. Seriously, why report any number? Well, the obvious answer is to look good. But how can anyone possibly quantify how many jobs were saved/created by any one factor? There are so many components that go into hiring decisions.

My response would be, "it is what it is". You think some of the new jobs created should have been people who call up these recipients of stimulus to interrogate them on how they report their job creation numbers?

Ok, I give you (pretend you're a state) $5M to do road improvements, you accept bids for the contract. One bid is selected, the project begins, and numbers of employees working on that contract are reported... say 310 jobs. They've got dirt movers and stone delivery, asphalt, rollers, and supervisor type guys. These aren't full time positions, but it's still a "job task" that must be performed by a single human.

Do they report only the number of personnel working on that contract? Or spend 3 weeks perhaps more time, getting into more granularity by reporting the "numbers" of jobs which only work more than 24 hours per work week for a minimum of 13 consecutive weeks? Why not a solid 40? What if the money only created part time opportunities, say 5am to 12 noon for the child care place?

Broad strokes my friends... I take them for what they are.

What if the company that won the job could do it with it's current workforce. Do those jobs count as saved even though they were not going to be laid off due to other work? I would say under the current administration math they would count as jobs saved even though they really weren't.
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Post  Guest Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:26 pm

meta4 wrote:
Markwes wrote:
meta4 wrote:It appears by your comments you have misunderstood how the job numbers were reporting, attributing the errors to intentional "fluffing" by the administration. The article clearly details this is not the case.

Why don't you give that Florida Child Care center a call and tell them how you feel disappointed with their reporting.
Then my answer would be they screwed up by using untrustworthy numbers. Seriously, why report any number? Well, the obvious answer is to look good. But how can anyone possibly quantify how many jobs were saved/created by any one factor? There are so many components that go into hiring decisions.

My response would be, "it is what it is". You think some of the new jobs created should have been people who call up these recipients of stimulus to interrogate them on how they report their job creation numbers?

Ok, I give you (pretend you're a state) $5M to do road improvements, you accept bids for the contract. One bid is selected, the project begins, and numbers of employees working on that contract are reported... say 310 jobs. They've got dirt movers and stone delivery, asphalt, rollers, and supervisor type guys. These aren't full time positions, but it's still a "job task" that must be performed by a single human.

Do they report only the number of personnel working on that contract? Or spend 3 weeks perhaps more time, getting into more granularity by reporting the "numbers" of jobs which only work more than 24 hours per work week for a minimum of 13 consecutive weeks? Why not a solid 40? What if the money only created part time opportunities, say 5am to 12 noon for the child care place?

Broad strokes my friends... I take them for what they are.

Obama said unemployment would not exceed 8% if the stimulus bill passed. Now unemployment is almost at 10%. Go over that with a fine toothed comb.
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Post  Pez Fri Oct 30, 2009 8:20 am

No... he didnt really... While that is certainly a GOP talking point, Obama himself never said it, never framed it in terms of a promise. I know the document you are referring to, and it was a chart that stated where unemployment would be with and without the stimulus. Obama's staff prepared the document, and it contained the unemployment projections... hardly promises.

If you find a reliable source that reports Obama actually said that, I will stand humbly corrected.

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Post  IrishGuy Fri Oct 30, 2009 8:39 am

Scooby01_98 wrote:

What if the company that won the job could do it with it's current workforce. Do those jobs count as saved even though they were not going to be laid off due to other work? I would say under the current administration math they would count as jobs saved even though they really weren't.

This is what I am wondering too. At work, we have recieved the construction management contract for three different counties' stimulus jobs for road resurfacing. None of the companies on any of these jobs has "hired" anyone new. Also, at my work, we haven't hired anyone new. We are currently stretched very thin and working overtime hours to cover everything, but the suits have chosen not to hire additional help.
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Post  Scooby01_98 Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:16 am

Pez wrote:No... he didnt really... While that is certainly a GOP talking point, Obama himself never said it, never framed it in terms of a promise. I know the document you are referring to, and it was a chart that stated where unemployment would be with and without the stimulus. Obama's staff prepared the document, and it contained the unemployment projections... hardly promises.

If you find a reliable source that reports Obama actually said that, I will stand humbly corrected.

Well if it is a chart he used to sell his stimulus bill as what would happen with stimulus funds vs without stimulus funds. Then he didn't promise he in "bmans voice" lied and peoples wallets died.
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Post  Pez Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:31 am

Scooby01_98 wrote:Well if it is a chart he used to sell his stimulus bill as what would happen with stimulus funds vs without stimulus funds. Then he didn't promise he in "bmans voice" lied and peoples wallets died.

Hehe... I'm kinda bummed he's gone, he had gone off the deep end a little tho...

to topic, I think your assertion is still a little thin; they were economic projections made by Obama's staff, Kroman made the statement that Obama said unemployment wouldnt rise above 8%, when in fact he, well, didnt say that at all. I will concede that the administration projected that unemployment would not go over 8%, but thats a far cry from any kind of guarantee. Biden did assume his white house apologist role well as stated that "well um we did those projections before the 4th quarter gdp numbers came in... worse than expected... do I look good in this tie... blah blah..."

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Post  LTRT Fri Oct 30, 2009 10:02 am

Pez wrote:I will concede that the administration projected that unemployment would not go over 8%, but thats a far cry from any kind of guarantee.

And I project that we won't get over 8" of snow this season. I'm not promising it and I'm not even saying it, I'm writing it. "thats a far cry from any kind of guarantee" tongue

Me thinks you're trying to split that hair again. Suspect
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Post  Guest Fri Oct 30, 2009 10:21 am

IrishGuy wrote:
Scooby01_98 wrote:

What if the company that won the job could do it with it's current workforce. Do those jobs count as saved even though they were not going to be laid off due to other work? I would say under the current administration math they would count as jobs saved even though they really weren't.

This is what I am wondering too. At work, we have recieved the construction management contract for three different counties' stimulus jobs for road resurfacing. None of the companies on any of these jobs has "hired" anyone new. Also, at my work, we haven't hired anyone new. We are currently stretched very thin and working overtime hours to cover everything, but the suits have chosen not to hire additional help.

Scoob, I don't think those numbers should be reported as newly created jobs. Back to my original point, it's the employers burden to report the numbers, not relevant if we're talking about placing blame on the administration.

Irish, this will be interesting to see how the numbers are reported... can you give us some rough details on the projects? When do they start construction, when do they end? I understand if you don't want to share that, maybe just the counties? Are you certain these were "stimulated" projects or were they already previously planned/budgeted, and now that stimulus money is available it's being used?
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Post  IrishGuy Fri Oct 30, 2009 11:13 am

meta4 wrote:

Irish, this will be interesting to see how the numbers are reported... can you give us some rough details on the projects? When do they start construction, when do they end? I understand if you don't want to share that, maybe just the counties? Are you certain these were "stimulated" projects or were they already previously planned/budgeted, and now that stimulus money is available it's being used?

These are stimulus projects. Asphalt milling and resurfacing. One of the counties has already started and finished, began about 4 weeks ago and just finsihed. Another county is getting ready to start very soon. That one is supposed to be completed by Thanksgiving. Not really sure when the third one will begin. Many of these resurfacing projects probably were planned in the long term for the respected county/city, but the local government entity applied for and was granted federal stimulus money to pay for the particular projects.
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Post  Pez Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:11 pm

IrishGuy wrote:
meta4 wrote:

Irish, this will be interesting to see how the numbers are reported... can you give us some rough details on the projects? When do they start construction, when do they end? I understand if you don't want to share that, maybe just the counties? Are you certain these were "stimulated" projects or were they already previously planned/budgeted, and now that stimulus money is available it's being used?

These are stimulus projects. Asphalt milling and resurfacing. One of the counties has already started and finished, began about 4 weeks ago and just finsihed. Another county is getting ready to start very soon. That one is supposed to be completed by Thanksgiving. Not really sure when the third one will begin. Many of these resurfacing projects probably were planned in the long term for the respected county/city, but the local government entity applied for and was granted federal stimulus money to pay for the particular projects.

Maybe I'm over simplifying, but what I'm hearing is that these people got more work, but didnt add jobs... which, regardless of how the administration portrays it, is ultimately positive in terms of the fact that they had x amount of work before the stimulus, now because scheduled have been moved up, then not Only still have x work, but they get to add y... x+y still results in more revenue for a company, that may or may Not translate into jobs directly, but with that revenue businesses might be able to expand, or Might pay overtime... ultimately the stimuls money (in this example) is doing what it's supposed to do... putting that company on a more sound financial footing.

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Post  Pez Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:15 pm

LTRT wrote:
Pez wrote:I will concede that the administration projected that unemployment would not go over 8%, but thats a far cry from any kind of guarantee.

And I project that we won't get over 8" of snow this season. I'm not promising it and I'm not even saying it, I'm writing it. "thats a far cry from any kind of guarantee" tongue

Me thinks you're trying to split that hair again. Suspect

You're point is well taken, however I was speaking specifically about Kroman's astute comment that Obama said if we pass the stimulus employment would not go above 8%... If you take a what was a report prepared by the administration that has estimates and projections related to unemployment, and construe that to say that it was some sort of promise uttered by Obama himself is a far bigger stretch than I am making.

Obama isnt exactly landing the fighter jet on the carrier deck either.

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Post  LTRT Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:20 pm

Pez wrote:... ultimately the stimuls money (in this example) is doing what it's supposed to do... putting that company on a more sound financial footing.

Yes this is a good thing, but is that what the country was told it would do in order to 'sell' the stimulus? I don't know, but seems like there was something in there about the promise of that 'three letter word'...jobs.
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Post  Guest Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:33 pm

I'll give you a job LTRT, you can beat my horse to death. I rode in on him but he's on his last leg ... Very Happy

lol! Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands 810511

"... and I'm singin', oh yeah, oh yeah, I'm singin'... something... something... somethin' about this one horse town"
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Post  LTRT Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:36 pm

meta4 wrote:I'll give you a job LTRT, you can beat my horse to death. He's on his last leg anyway... Very Happy

lol! Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands 810511

Some are saying they miss Bman, I'm just trying to pick up the slack where he left off, except I'm on the right side of the equation. pirat
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Post  Guest Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:40 pm

LTRT wrote:
meta4 wrote:I'll give you a job LTRT, you can beat my horse to death. He's on his last leg anyway... Very Happy

lol! Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands 810511

Some are saying they miss Bman, I'm just trying to pick up the slack where he left off, except I'm on the right side of the equation. pirat

And I was just trying to co-opt a little GOP-style humor. Cool
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