Retail sales up 2.7%

Associated Press... The Commerce Department said retail sales climbed 2.7 percent after declining 0.2 percent in July. It was the biggest monthly advance since January 2006 and well above expectations on Wall Street for a 2 percent increase.

"Retail sales show the recovery is here. This wasn't just autos, it wasn't just gasoline. This was the U.S. consumer getting out of their foxhole," said T.J. Marta, market strategist at Marta on the Markets in Scotch Plains, New Jersey. "This is indisputably a good number."

Wow... 2.7% I dont think anyone expected that... bernanke is saying the recession is over, I'm still pretty skeptical.

Retail sales always jump in August, it's when kids go back to school.

I suspect we'll hear how dismal the numbers are come Christmas shopping time.

I would be more interested in next months direction. This month (Aug) had the cash for clunkers program that made up 1.6% of the 2.7, back to school. etc. I do think without those two drivers it would have still been up but less than 1%.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090915/bs_nm/us_usa_economy;_ylt=AsJrWTi89om2VDpO5ag7wIe573QA;_ylu=X3oDMTJrZzMxZTE1BGFzc2V0A25tLzIwMDkwOTE1L3VzX3VzYV9lY29ub215BHBvcwM0BHNlYwN5bl9wYWdpbmF0ZV9zdW1tYXJ5X2xpc3QEc2xrA3VzcmV0YWlsc2FsZQ--

Consumer spending normally accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, with retail sales making up a third of that. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales jumped 1.1 percent in August after falling 0.5 percent in July.

I too would be interested to see if this can be sustained..... I would also like to see the job numbers turn the corner also... I doubt we will see that until late fall...

Pez wrote:I too would be interested to see if this can be sustained..... I would also like to see the job numbers turn the corner also... I doubt we will see that until late fall...

Watch in a couple of months, everyone will be singing praises for all the hiring. As if we'd be naive enough not to realize the extra hiring is attributed to what's done yearly for the shopping season.

Pez wrote:

Associated Press... The Commerce Department said retail sales climbed 2.7 percent after declining 0.2 percent in July. It was the biggest monthly advance since January 2006 and well above expectations on Wall Street for a 2 percent increase.

"Retail sales show the recovery is here. This wasn't just autos, it wasn't just gasoline. This was the U.S. consumer getting out of their foxhole," said T.J. Marta, market strategist at Marta on the Markets in Scotch Plains, New Jersey. "This is indisputably a good number."

Wow... 2.7% I dont think anyone expected that... bernanke is saying the recession is over, I'm still pretty skeptical.

You are better than I. I am a show me the money/proof/goods... my gut says we are not close to this being over.

med and pharm had a good year..no recession there far as profits. altho even with their soaring profits i heard during the cencure-joe wilson discussions and voting on c-span today that eli lilly is laying off boatloads of folks.

LTRT wrote:

Pez wrote:I too would be interested to see if this can be sustained..... I would also like to see the job numbers turn the corner also... I doubt we will see that until late fall...

Watch in a couple of months, everyone will be singing praises for all the hiring. As if we'd be naive enough not to realize the extra hiring is attributed to what's done yearly for the shopping season.

I respect your point, but the 2.7% was clearly far above expectations, which would have taken the C4C and seasonal back to school spending into account... I dont think it's naive to suggest that this is indeed positive news for the economy. As you said, it will be interesting to see this sustained, but 2.7% is greater than what was expected, and there is no pro-obama media bias at work here... consumer spending made the biggest advance in 2.5 years... we had back to school spending and other seasonal spending then.

Pez, many on here will NEVER accept any good news without a complaint.

Bman wrote:Pez, many on here will NEVER accept any good news without a complaint.

I accept it. But I would like to see some consistent growth before I declare the recession over.

Bman wrote:Pez, many on here will NEVER accept any good news without a complaint.

Judge Judy.

Markwes wrote:

Bman wrote:Pez, many on here will NEVER accept any good news without a complaint.

I accept it. But I would like to see some consistent growth before I declare the recession over.

Agree here... I think Bernanke remarks were pretty premature...

Bman wrote:Pez, many on here will NEVER accept any good news without a complaint.

Maybe some people are realists.

Fighter59 wrote:

Bman wrote:Pez, many on here will NEVER accept any good news without a complaint.

Maybe some people are realists.

A realist would not have stated that retail sales always go up in august... the point is that retail sales exceeded expectations, which would Have already taken such seasonal spending into account (same thing I replied to you about before).

You are at one end of the political spectrum and I am likely far to the other, but that doesnt mean I dont enjoy a friendly discourse... but when you revive a thread that has been dead for a week for no other purpose than to insult bman, you arent adding anything whatsoever to such discourse. Especially since you already stated your unrealistic expectations that this 2.7% increase in consumer speending is just people buying books and pencils.

Chill man... there's no reason this cant be fun.

Pez wrote:

Fighter59 wrote:

Bman wrote:Pez, many on here will NEVER accept any good news without a complaint.

Maybe some people are realists.

A realist would not have stated that retail sales always go up in august... the point is that retail sales exceeded expectations, which would Have already taken such seasonal spending into account (same thing I replied to you about before).

You are at one end of the political spectrum and I am likely far to the other, but that doesnt mean I dont enjoy a friendly discourse... but when you revive a thread that has been dead for a week for no other purpose than to insult bman, you arent adding anything whatsoever to such discourse. Especially since you already stated your unrealistic expectations that this 2.7% increase in consumer speending is just people buying books and pencils.

Chill man... there's no reason this cant be fun.

I don't understand how stating the obvious is a complaint. A lot more goes into getting ready for school than books and pencils. (clothes, sports equipment, shoes, etc) It's obvious you don't have children. We dropped over $1,000 extra in the month of August. If you don't think that has an impact to the economy, so be it. Perhaps I'm not unrealistic since I'm speaking from experience.

Bman is a big boy, he doesn't need you running to his rescue.

that's cool... I didnt think you were reading my posts... lemme bullet it out...

- analysts expected consumer spending to rise in august, by a number that was less than 2.7%
- these analysts base these rises on past data, therefor their analysis must have included the back to school figure
- since the 2.7% was greater than expected, I viewed it as positive news, rather than the typical back to school spending
- if it was typical back to school spending, it would not have exceeded expectations

You must understand that you are asking me to believe that these analysts who generate these expectations every year are not smart enough to account for back to school spending. I respect your opinion, but I am having a hard time seeing your opinion as logical, well thought out and free from bias.

Throughout the thread, I have tempered this information such that I was not cheerleading... I too wish to see it sustained, but to dismiss it out of hand because it's 'just the usual back to school spending' is asking a bit much... Consider also that if I am being deceived by this 2.7% number, investors have been deceived into buying stock also... as the DJIA was already at a 7 month high and this news propelled it further.

Everyone is a fool but Fighter59?